Association of blood neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio with short-term prognosis and severity of tuberculosis meningitis patients without HIV infection

Background Predicting the short-term prognosis and severity of tuberculosis meningitis (TBM) patients without HIV infection can be challenging, and there have been no prior studies examining the neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as a potential predictor of short-term prognosis or its relationship to TBM severity.

We hypothesized that NLR might serve as an independent indicator of short-term prognostic significance and that there might be a correlation between NLR and severity.

The aim of this study was to investigate the role of NLR as a predictor of short-term prognosis and its relationship to severity of tuberculosis meningitis patients without HIV infection.

Methods We retrospectively collected data from patients diagnosed with TBM in the West China Hospital, Sichuan University, from the period bet w een January 1st, 2018 and August 1st, 2019.

Multivariable analysis was executed by the logistic regression model to verify the independence of the 28-day mortality, the discriminative power for predicting short-term prognosis was evaluated using a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, survival outcomes were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Pearson’s correlation analysis was performed to discuss correlation between NLR and the severity of TBM.

Results We collected data from 231 TBM patients without HIV infection.

68 (29.4%) patients are classified as stage (I) 138(59.8%) patients are stage (II) 25(10.8%) patients are stage (III) 16(6.9%) patients died during the follow-up period of 28 days.

By multiple logistic regression analyses, the NLR (OR = 1.065, 95% CI = 1.001–1.133, P = 0.045), peripheral neurological deficit (OR 7.335, 95% CI 1.964–27.385, P = 0 0.003) and hydrocephalus (OR 11.338, 95% CI 2.397–53.633, P = 0 0.002) are independent risk factors of 28-day mortality.

The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting short prognosis using NLR is 0.683 (95% CI 0.540–0.826, P = 0.015), the optimal cutoff value is 9.99(sensitivity: 56.3%, specificity: 80.9%).

The Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that patients with higher NLR(>9.99) had significantly worse survival outcomes(P<0.01).

Pearson’s correlation analysis presents a significant positive correlation between the severity of TBM and NLR (r = 0.234, P<0.01).

Conclusions NLR, peripheral neurological deficit, and hydrocephalus are independent risk factors of 28-day mortality, NLR can predict the short-term prognosis of TBM patients without HIV infection.

NLR is also found to be significantly and positively correlated with the severity of TBM.