New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model

BACKGROUND: In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route.

The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China.

METHODS: A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women.

The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted.

An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index.

We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses.

The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS: New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050.

New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435–10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027–11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337–13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165–8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524–5,747) in 2050.

Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total.

The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239–0.894).

CONCLUSIONS: Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-024-18735-z.