Breast cancer incidence, stage distribution, and treatment shifts during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide population-level study

Background The first COVID-19 wave in 2020 necessitated temporary suspension of non-essential medical services including organized cancer screening programs in Belgium.

This study assessed the impact of the pandemic on breast cancer (BC) incidence, stage at diagnosis, and management in Belgium in 2020.

Methods All Belgian residents diagnosed with in situ or invasive BC in 2015–2020 in the nationwide, population-based cancer registry database were included.

Incidence trends for 2015–2019 were extrapolated to predict incidence and stage distribution for 2020 and compared with the observed values.

National healthcare reimbursement data were used to examine treatment strategies.

Exact tumor diameter and nodal involvement, extracted from pathology reports, were analyzed for 2019 and 2020.

Results 74,975 tumors were selected for analysis of incidence and clinical stage.

Invasive BC incidence declined by -5.0% in 2020, with a drop during the first COVID-19 wave (Mar-Jun; -23%) followed by a rebound (Jul-Dec; +7%).

Predicted and observed incidence (in situ + invasive) was not different in patients < 50 years.

In the 50–69 and 70 + age groups, significant declines of -4.1% and − 8.4% respectively were found.

Excess declines were seen in clinical stage 0 and I in Mar-Jun, without excess increases in clinical stage II-IV tumors in Jul-Dec.

There was no increase in average tumor diameter or nodal involvement in 2020.

Patients diagnosed in Mar-Jun received significantly more neoadjuvant therapy, particularly neoadjuvant hormonal therapy for patients with clinical stage I-II BC.

Conclusions BC incidence decline in 2020 in Belgium was largely restricted to very early-stage BC and patients aged 50 and over.

Delayed diagnosis did not result in an overall progression to higher stage at diagnosis in 2020.

Observed treatment adaptations in Belgium were successful in prioritizing patients for surgery while preventing tumor progression in those with surgical delay.

Continuation of monitoring BC incidence and stage in the future is crucial.