Absolute treatment effects of novel antidiabetic drugs on a composite renal outcome: meta-analysis of digitalized individual patient data

Background Absolute treatment benefits—expressed as numbers needed to treat—of the glucose lowering and cardiovascular drugs, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists and sodium-glucose transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors on renal outcomes remain uncertain.

With the present meta-analysis of digitalized individual patient data, we aimed to display and compare numbers needed to treat of both drugs on a composite renal outcome.

Methods From Kaplan–Meier plots of major cardiovascular outcome trials of GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT2 inhibitors vs. placebo, we digitalized individual patient time-to-event information on composite renal outcomes with WebPlotDigitizer 4.2; numbers needed to treat from individual cardiovascular outcome trials were estimated using parametric Weibull regression models and compared to original data.

Random-effects meta-analysis generated meta-numbers needed to treat with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results Twelve cardiovascular outcome trials (three for GLP-1 receptor agonists, nine for SGLT2 inhibitors) comprising 90,865 participants were included.

Eight trials were conducted in primary type 2 diabetes populations, two in a primary heart failure and two in a primary chronic kidney disease population.

Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate at baseline ranged between 37.3 and 85.3 ml/min/1.73 m^2.

Meta-analyses estimated meta-numbers needed to treat of 85 (95% CI 60; 145) for GLP-1 receptor agonists and 104 (95% CI 81; 147) for SGLT2 inhibitors for the composite renal outcome at the overall median follow-up time of 36 months.

Conclusion The present meta-analysis of digitalized individual patient data revealed moderate and similar absolute treatment benefits of GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT2 inhibitors compared to placebo for a composite renal outcome.

Graphical Abstract