Reconstructing antibody dynamics to estimate the risk of influenza virus infection

Tsang, Tim, K; Perera, Ranawaka, a P M; Fang, Vicky, J; Wong, Jessica, Y; Shiu, Eunice, Y; So, Hau Chi; Ip, Dennis, K M; Malik Peiris, J, S; Leung, Gabriel, M; Cowling, Benjamin, J; Cauchemez, Simon

Reconstructing antibody dynamics to estimate the risk of influenza virus infection

Dokumentdetails

ID

oai:HAL:pasteur-04095291v1

Thema

[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]

Autor

Tsang, Tim, K Perera, Ranawaka, a P M Fang, Vicky, J Wong, Jessica, Y Shiu, Eunice, Y So, Hau Chi Ip, Dennis, K M Malik Peiris, J, S Leung, Gabriel, M Cowling, Benjamin, J Cauchemez, Simon

Langue

Editor

HAL CCSD;Nature Publishing Group

Kategorie

CNRS - Centre national de la recherche scientifique

Jahr

2022

Auflistungsdatum

07.10.2023

Schlüsselwörter

infection hai antibody virus influenza

Metrisch

Zusammenfassung

International audience; Abstract For >70 years, a 4-fold or greater rise in antibody titer has been used to confirm influenza virus infections in paired sera, despite recognition that this heuristic can lack sensitivity.

Here we analyze with a novel Bayesian model a large cohort of 2353 individuals followed for up to 5 years in Hong Kong to characterize influenza antibody dynamics and develop an algorithm to improve the identification of influenza virus infections.

After infection, we estimate that hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) titers were boosted by 16-fold on average and subsequently decrease by 14% per year.

In six epidemics, the infection risks for adults were 3%–19% while the infection risks for children were 1.6–4.4 times higher than that of younger adults.

Every two-fold increase in pre-epidemic HAI titer was associated with 19%–58% protection against infection.

Our inferential framework clarifies the contributions of age and pre-epidemic HAI titers to characterize individual infection risk.

Tsang, Tim, K,Perera, Ranawaka, a P M,Fang, Vicky, J,Wong, Jessica, Y,Shiu, Eunice, Y,So, Hau Chi,Ip, Dennis, K M,Malik Peiris, J, S,Leung, Gabriel, M,Cowling, Benjamin, J,Cauchemez, Simon, 2022, Reconstructing antibody dynamics to estimate the risk of influenza virus infection, HAL CCSD;Nature Publishing Group