Development and validation of two nomograms for predicting overall survival and Cancer-specific survival in prostate cancer patients with bone metastases: a population-based study

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer with bone metastasis has significant invasiveness and markedly poorer prognosis.

The purpose of this study is to establish two nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of prostate cancer patients with bone metastasis.

METHODS: From January 2000 to December 2018, a total of 2683 prostate adenocarcinoma with bone metastasis patients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database.

These patients were then divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort, with OS and CSS as the study endpoints.

Correlation analyses were employed to assess the relationship between variables.

Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were utilized to ascertain the independent prognostic factors.

Calibration curves and the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (time-dependent AUC) were employed to evaluate discrimination and calibration of the nomogram.

DCA was applied to examine accuracy and clinical benefits.

The clinical utility of the nomogram and the AJCC Stage System was compared using net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Lastly, the risk stratifications of the nomogram and the AJCC Stage System were compared.

RESULTS: There was no collinearity among the variables that were screened.

The results of multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that seven variables (age, surgery, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, Gleason score, marital status) and six variables (age, surgery, lung metastasis, liver metastasis, Gleason score, marital status) were identified to establish the nomogram for OS and CSS, respectively.

The calibration curves, time-dependent AUC curves, and DCA revealed that both nomograms had pleasant predictive power.

Furthermore, NRI and IDI confirmed that the nomogram outperformed the AJCC Stage System.

CONCLUSION: Both nomograms had satisfactory accuracy and were validated to assist clinicians in evaluating the prognosis of PABM patients.