Estimates of the global burden of non-Hodgkin lymphoma attributable to HIV: a population attributable modeling study

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) significantly increases the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) development, yet the population-level impact on NHL burden is unquantified.

We aim to quantify this association and estimate the global burden of HIV-associated NHL.

METHODS: In this meta-analysis, we searched five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus) from database inception up to September 13, 2023, identifying cohort, case–control, or cross-sectional studies with an effective control group to assess NHL risk among individuals with HIV infection, with two authors extracting summary data from reports.

Global and regional HIV-associated population attributable fraction (PAF) and NHL disease burden were calculated based on the pooled risk ratio (RR).

HIV prevalence and NHL incidence were obtained from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019.

Trends in NHL incidence due to HIV were assessed using age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC).

This study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42023404150).

FINDINGS: Out of 14,929 literature sources, 39 articles met our inclusion criteria.

The risk of NHL was significantly increased in the population living with HIV (pooled RR 23.51, 95% CI 17.62–31.37; I(2) = 100%, p < 0.0001), without publication bias.

Globally, 6.92% (95% CI 2.18%–11.57%) of NHL new cases in 2019 were attributable to HIV infection (30,503, 95% CI 9585–52,209), which marked a more than three-fold increase from 1990 (8340, 95% CI 3346–13,799).

The UNAIDS region of Eastern and Southern Africa was the highest affected region, with 44.46% (95% CI 19.62%–58.57%) of NHL new cases attributed to HIV infection.

The Eastern Europe and Central Asia region experienced the highest increase in ASIR of NHL due to HIV in the past thirty years, wherein the EAPC was 8.74% (95% CI 7.66%–9.84%), from 2010 to 2019.

INTERPRETATION: People with HIV infection face a significantly increased risk of NHL.

Targeted prevention and control policies are especially crucial for countries in Eastern and Southern Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, to achieve the UNAIDS's ‘90-90-90’ Fast-Track targets.

Limited studies across diverse regions and heterogeneity between research have hindered precise estimations for specific periods and regions.

FUNDING: Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital, Chengdu, China; Health Care for Cadres of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China; 10.13039/501100004829Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China.